Retail Analytics: Customer Driven Multi-Channel Marketing and Up-Sell and Cross-Sell Opportunities

Acquiring new customers is expensive for any retail business. Most of us are familiar with the Bain study that says it is five to seven times more expensive to acquire a new customer than it is to sell more to an existing customer. So if you are spending $1M on a mass promotion to generate $15M in sales, by focusing instead on selective customers built on our Ergenomics’ Power Index, you may be able to cut your ad spend in half and achieve the same sales results. This frees up more money for you to spend on other promotions, or simply drop to the bottom line. The old Pareto rule is proven out time after time in retail. For most retailers, they will obtain approximately 70% of their sales from just 30% of their customers. Yet, most retailers spend their advertising equally against every customer. For most retailers, this means that they are likely spending more in advertising to these customers than they get back in sales.

 At Ergenomics, we help you to segment your customers and model them so that we can create incremental sales dollars for you. We look at their shopping frequency, spending, and basket items to help you decide how and where to best spend promotional dollars most effectively.

Ergenomics has developed a Power Index that allows clients to understand how certain SKU’s, business lines, and customer segments truly impact profitability. That is, our approach and solution can drive business intelligence to a level that is simply not attainable otherwise. Our Power Index is a robust tool that helps you get all of the information you need quickly and efficiently. The foundation for developing this solution is in the calculation and application of the Power Index.  This index has its roots in Game Theory and uses some of the algorithms inherent to this science.  Recognizing that each retail customer is a player in their unique game enables the Principles of Game Theory. Game Theory states that if there is a game, there are rules, players, and groups. If a player wants to join the group, that player wants to gain positively from this alliance. For the group to let this player in, they need to benefit from the addition. Constantly changing rules are applied in a timely manner to the right game (retail customer needs), the right player (retail customer), and the right group (product offerings). A retail customer will not buy a product if the need is not recognized. A company will not sell unprofitable products to generate long-term losses.  Ergenomics is the first to apply the principals of Game Theory specifically to the activity of crossselling.  We have developed our Power Index to complete the science.

Three main differentiators result from our position:

  1. We offer the only algorithm tailored to enterprise-wide cross-selling. Our Power Index allows our clients to identify on a per customer and per product level (i.e., what each customer is most likely to need, what each customer is most likely to buy, the ranking of all products by the propensity of each customer’s needs and wants);
  2. Using our Power Index, we have the ability to show our clients the importance of each product and teach our clients to use this information to improve their customer relationships (i.e., how important is Product A to the overall relationship, what is the relative importance of all products against each other);
  3. We also have the flexibility to apply our process to any natural segment. This science can be applied at the enterprise level, at the business line level, against customer segments, regionally, or at any other segmentation that the business needs this intelligence or sees potential ways to benefit from the analysis.

 

In our application, rules work both ways so that the desired effect is that the customer and company mutually win. The customers get appropriate offers, and the company sells and promotes the wining coalitions of profitable products.  The result is that even when product profitability does exist, figures can be grossly misleading for some products because of the intermingled nature of a retail relationship. Winning coalitions are defined when a product forms a winning mix if it adds to the sustainable profit of the mix while not sacrificing its own margin. When this condition holds true, the product is called a “swinger” and is therefore pivotal for a given mix. The definition above is used to derive the probability of a swinger product as the ratio of all relevant swinger product mixes to the total number of coalitions or permutations that include the product under consideration.  By calculating each Power Index we determine where each customer is in the completeness of his or her relationship with the company and identify the next products that should be offered to each client. The algorithm is not limited to one or two selected retail products, rather it applies across the entire spectrum of products and services. For each available product, the Power Index enables us to rank the priority of offerings.

info@ergenomics.com

http://www.ergenomics.com

(612)245-4670

© ERGENOMICS 2009

Retail Analytics Part 3: Demand Forecasting and Inventory Management

Retail Analytics Part 3: Demand Forecasting and Inventory Management

 Some of the most successful retailers are using analytics for reducing stock outs at retail locations. Retailers are starting to understand how analytics can be leveraged to provide several quantifiable benefits: reduced stock outs, reduced inventory levels, optimized delivery schedules, and more efficient ordering process.

 Inventory turn is a key metric in any retail business. The faster the goods move in and out, the more money an organization will make. Therefore, anything that can “shorten the supply chain” or get rid of slow moving items will improve profits.  Our goal is to help take the kinks out of your supply chain. We have developed the Ergenomics Demand Forecasting Models which help you understand all of the different variables that are impacting your business. Many can be obvious while others are only detected through a sophisticated sifting and modeling of the data. For example, we have found in some instances that looking at the data over a 24 month period identified some key fraud issues that went undetected using the retailer’s 12 month analysis. This single analysis saved this retailer over $20M dollars in waste. From our experience, a 5% accuracy increase in forecasting for a $9b retailer will add another $60M in revenue. Our Ergenomics Demand Forecast Modeling leverages the power of both the latest technology and the analytical strength of our 10+ PhD economist analysts.

info@ergenomics.com

http://www.ergenomics.com

(612)245-4670

© ERGENOMICS 2009

Transformation – One Pound at a Time

You know the old saying, “The way you eat an elephant is one bite at a time”.  Well, the same is true of how you transform anything.  The same recipe applies.  You want to change your behavior, your children’s behavior, a bad habit, the results of your personal performance, your department, your company, etc.  You change any of these things the same way. 

This may require a paradigm shift so see my blog http://joycefriel.blogspot.com for comments on paradigm shift.  You have to see it to achieve it so what is that paradigm shift you need to accept in your mind?

  1. Recognize specifically what you want to change 
  2. Create a reasonable plan
  3. Start making small changes
  4. Monitor and track results
  5. Celebrate success!

 

 So what is it that you specifically want to or need to change?  What have you known for a while that needs attention – you just haven’t or didn’t know how to get started?  What is a reasonable plan you could put in place? Make it attainable – don’t set yourself up for failure – take your time and make it successful. What small changes can you begin to make that will compound over time?   

There is no better time than the present to get started and I’ll bet if you really want to make this change happen, there is nothing standing in your way except yourself.  You can’t achieve your goal if you never start so take that first step – it makes the second one so much easier. 

I would tell you “good luck”, but it really isn’t about luck.  It is about awareness of the need to change, shifting your mind set or paradigm about your current condition, commitment, planning, tracking progress and celebrating success!  How will you celebrate your progress and your successful transformation?   

  

Follow me at http://joycefriel.blogspot.com and on Twitter at www.twitter.com/joycefriel

For info on new programs browse  http://www.peakperformancecorp.com or call me at 480-236-4266.

Joyce Friel

Peak Performance Consulting

11353 E. Raintree Drive

Scottsdale, AZ  85255

480 236 4266

www.peakperformancecorp.com

www.joycefriel.blogspot.com

www.twitter.com

Retail Analytics: Price Sensitivity

One of the most common problems within the retail sector is pricing a product—not only initial pricing, but more importantly making the proper pricing decisions on an ongoing basis. Proper management of markdowns alone can contribute millions to a retailer’s bottom line. There are numerous similar products sitting on the shelves that are at different life stages and have complex interrelationships with other products and customers. Providing an optimal price of a SKU in order to extract maximum customer response is a challenge in itself. Virtually every retailer is running sales every week.

Usually each merchant looks at his or her business and decides what will be on sale. Yet the merchants typically do not know what customers will buy at full price and which will only buy on sale. If you could analyze the price sensitivity of each customer, you would find opportunities to significantly reduce your markdowns. Our Ergenomics Price Index is a unique method for modeling merchandise, customers and prices to help you index your customers’ price sensitivity. Some customers are so-called “cherry pickers” and will only buy an item when it is on sale. At the opposite end of the spectrum are non-price sensitive customers, who will just buy something because they want it or need it and do not care about the price.

Imagine the benefit of understanding price sensitivity at the individual customer level. What a powerful tool to use to reduce markdowns and to beat your competitors at the price game.  We calculate the price elasticity for products and accessories that have extremely high or extremely low elasticity along with reasonable business impact (sales volume, margins, or life stage). These accessories are picked for analysis. By using gross margins, we can come up with the best price change for such accessories.

Likewise, a basic market basket analysis can help find products that customers like to buy together. However, bundling needs to be evaluated for elasticity as well as likelihood of success before taking it to the customer. In order to increase the sale of some of the underperforming accessories, such accessories can be strategically bundled with highly elastic products. Similarly, a company will want to know the primary and secondary driver relationship qualities of each product (i.e., which product is the one that really makes people come to the stores). The gross margin of the bundle can be used for driving the price of the bundle.

In part 3, we’ll address how demand forecasting is leveraged to shorten the supply chain and improve profitability.

info@ergenomics.com

http://www.ergenomics.com

(612)245-4670

© ERGENOMICS 2009

Successful Organizational Leadership Requires Conceptualization

The higher you go in an organization the more the skill set needed changes from technical competence to the broader skill of conceptualization.  Getting in the door requires technical knowledge of your chosen field, the right attitude and the inherent characteristics valued by the hiring organization. The first several positions you hold are quite likely to be based upon your knowledge, job skill and the ability to delivery specific results. Results get you promoted to higher and higher levels, but at some point the skill set requirements change.

Leading an organization requires the ability to conceptualize about the issues and concerns of an organization, as well as, what is needed in the future.  Conceptualization is all about being able to see that which is not there.  The ability to look at a set of actual circumstances and see beyond them in order to determine the problem or opportunity they present.  This skill is about recognizing how the functions of an organization are all interdependent; how changes in one area impact all the others.  The ability to see customers needs and project the solution in not-yet-developed products or services your organization can provide.  Conceptualization is critical both in solving today’s problems, as well as, anticipating the needs of the market and then having the solution prepared in time to capture the opportunity. 

Conceptualization is not a skill learned once you are at the executive level. It is a developmental skill that needs to be honed all along the way.  The ability to see conceptually can be improved by holding a variety of positions and thereby broadening your entire conceptual spectrum of how business operates, taking on special interdepartmental assignments, and working with specific problems that you would not otherwise encounter in the course of your normal work, but which are necessary to broaden your thinking and skill.

So if you are already a good conceptual thinker, what do you need to be doing to help others in your organization achieve this same level of expertise?   What did you do to learn this skill that might be of particular value to others?  If you need to develop your ability to see conceptually more easily or more deeply, what projects, tasks or assignments do you need to seek out?   Is your mentor a good conceptual thinker? If not, maybe you need to find an additional mentor who is particularly good at thinking conceptually.

 You’ll be hard-pressed to find a senior-level leader that is still operating at the technical skills level.  The higher you go the more you get removed from the technical side of your business. However, you’ll find the best leaders you know are good conceptual leaders and if they recognize this as a weakness in their skill set, they have surrounded themselves with others who have this talent.

 Follow me at http://joycefriel.blogspot.com and on Twitter at www.twitter.com/joycefriel

For info on new programs browse  http://www.peakperformancecorp.com or call me at 480-236-4266.

Joyce Friel

Peak Performance Consulting

11353 E. Raintree Drive

Scottsdale, AZ  85255

480 236 4266

www.peakperformancecorp.com

www.joycefriel.blogspot.com

www.twitter.com

Retail Analytics: Competitive Differentiation Part 1

It is no surprise that retail is an ever-changing and dynamic environment. With the economic and competitive landscape reshaping itself before our very eyes, retailers find themselves challenged to meet the customized demands of their customers, while still clinging to some sense of efficiency and scalability (and, profitability)- not an easy task by any means.

Companies need to be flexible and reactive so they can quickly respond to increasingly sophisticated customer demands. Businesses must be able to change their business models so they can collect real-time business information and drive the efficiency of their day-to-day operations.

Several critical challenges confront today’s retailer: price sensitivity, demand forecasting and inventory management, customer driven up-sell and cross-sell, multi-channel marketing, and fraud detection and loss prevention; just to name a few. Ergenomics believes in the use of enterprise wide analytics to create one common view of the enterprise which enables everyone across the organization to approach the business with the same set of numbers and data.

Our analytics approach starts with improving your customer knowledge. Retailing today is about making the process of getting the right products to the right customer at the right price at the right time a scientific, predictable routine. The days of “stack it high and watch it fly” are gone. This means making your organization as efficient and effective as possible.

As they say, “retailing is detailing,” and the devil is in the detail. That is where the Ergenomics’ Blueprint of Enterprise Analytics allows us to sift through massive amounts of data quickly and precisely to help you identify and predict selling opportunities. We leverage tools like SAS and SAP to help our PhD economists assess your customer information and help build you a Customer Performance Dashboard along with other reports to help you leverage the power of customer data. Our approach to retail analytics is robust and straightforward. Ergenomics deploys expertise (technological, analytical, and business line) that can hone in on opportunities with an organization to maximize their customer portfolio. All areas of concern can be addressed and optimized through our disciplined and rigorous execution.

Business Process > Data Analytics > Assess > Build > Optimize > Support > Train > Deliver

Understanding the current customer’s buying pattern, price sensitivity, interdependence of product lines to each other, and each SKU’s true and absolute profit contribution not only produces immediate results, but can be modeled forward to gain efficiencies in future operational and marketing decisions.

In part 2, we’ll address the topic of price sensitivity.

info@ergenomics.com

http://www.ergenomics.com

(612)245-4670

© ERGENOMICS 2009